Bitcoin and crypto markets saw a strong weekly close. Bitcoin price climbed straight into the current key resistance at $28,600. After seven failed attempts, this once again puts the price just below the current key level that separates BTC from $30,000.
A powerful price move will also benefit the broader crypto market, as the altcoin rotation, i.e. altcoin season, has still not materialized. Bitcoin and crypto investors should therefore keep an eye on key macro data in the coming week.
Bitcoin and Crypto face these key events
After a calm start to the week, one of the most important macroeconomic indicators for the financial markets arrives on Wednesday April 12 with the US consumer price index (CPI). When the CPI data is released at 8:30 a.m. EST, expect to see more volatility in the Bitcoin and crypto markets.
Investors will weigh whether the Federal Reserve can force another rate hike or press the pause button in the face of stronger than expected falling inflation combined with the latest US labor market data. The previous month’s CPI was 6.0% on an annual basis (YoY) and 0.4% on a month (MoM).
In March, expectations are for CPI YoY at 5.2% and 0.3% (MoM). Missing expectations is likely to send Bitcoin price lower as markets price a higher likelihood of another Fed rate hike in May.
The CME’s FedWatch tool currently shows a 61% probability of a 0.25% rate hike in May. If expectations are met or even exceeded, Bitcoin is likely to head north.
Later today, Wednesday, the FOMC minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. EST. The minutes of the meeting will reveal more details on the Fed’s projections and considerations for the latest interest rate decision. This makes Wednesday the most important day of the week.
On Thursday, April 13, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Initial Jobless Claims will be released at 8:30 a.m. EST. The MoM PPI is expected to reach 0.0% (previously -0.1%), while the core MoM PPI: is expected to rise to 0.3% (previously 0.0%).
Initial jobless claims are forecast at 216,000, and were previously at 228,000. Already last week, figures from the US labor market and the ISM Private Sector Purchasing Managers Index showed small cracks in the US economy, while (the lagging indicator) the US unemployment rate sent a mixed signal and fell slightly (from 3.6% to 3.5%).
On Friday, April 14 at 8:30 a.m., US retail sales will be released. March Retail Sales are expected to fall 0.5% MoM (previously -0.4%), while Core Retail Sales are expected to fall 0.4% MoM (previously -0.1%). The data should be viewed against the backdrop of slowing economic growth and recession fears.
At press time, the BTC price was trading at $28,258. A daily or even weekly close of Bitcoin above $28,600 would be extremely bullish.
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com