Despite his campaign rhetoric of end fossil fuelsacknowledged President Biden in his recent State of the Union Address that “we’re going to need oil for at least another decade”.
But a new report released Thursday by an agency independent of Biden’s own government projects, it will even take much longer than that.
In fact, the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) 2023 Annual Energy Outlook indicates that U.S. oil production could even increase by 2050, even if clean energy sources like wind and solar are also increasing dramatically.
Analysts say U.S. demand for oil and gas is expected to remain remarkably flat for decades and “we expect U.S. production to remain at historically high volumes as exports of finished goods increase,” Angelina said. LaRose, EIA assistant administrator for energy analysis. a session on Thursday around the publication of the report.
The EIA is an independent government agency that prepared this week’s report without input from the White House or other officials like Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm. Their predictions were also confirmed by external experts in recent monthsbut Thursday’s release marks an official acknowledgment by the government of the widespread expectation that U.S. oil and gas production is not expected to decline anytime soon.
“Motor gasoline and diesel fuel are still in demand for 2050”
The United States currently produces about 20 million barrels of oil per day. Looking to 2050, EIA analysts see the possibility of a “high oil and gas supply” scenario where this number will increase to around 30 million barrels per day in 2050. Production remains stable or declines slightly in other models, but in all cases analysts model the United States will remain a net exporter of petroleum products and natural gas through 2050.
The newly released report will likely be cited often by Republican critics of President Biden, many of whom scoffed when he made his State of the Union prediction. The GOP and industry critics say the consistent downplaying of Biden and his aides about the future of oil and gas companies has made companies fearful about investing for the future.
The report also follows a Biden administration decision to approve ConocoPhillips’ Willow drilling project in Alaska that will produce new oil for years.
EIA analysts also see explosive growth in clean energy and clean electricity in the coming decades. The report offered three other key predictions for the energy industry that should also encourage environmentalists.
It predicts a rapid decline in CO2 levels, thanks in large part to declining coal production and strong growth in renewable energy generation “in all regions of the United States”. He also expects technological changes such as more heat pumps in homes and more electric vehicles on the road to drive the global energy industry toward cleaner energy.
But the process is likely to be very gradual. In the area of electric vehicles, for example, EIA analysts predict that clean cars will account for less than 20% of the overall automotive market in 2050.
“Motor gasoline and diesel fuel are still in demand for 2050,” LaRose noted.
Another report released by the agency on Thursday dug into the possible effects of the Cut Inflation Act of 2022 on the energy sector, predicting significant changes from the landmark climate law. As for global CO2 production, levels are expected to fall 25% to 38% below 2005 levels by 2030, due to upcoming changes online related to the law.
Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
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